Navigating Life's Incongruities

 

Strategies for Navigating Life's Incongruities

by John Fisher

Dealing with life’s incongruities can be challenging, but there are strategies that can help you navigate these moments with resilience and grace. Here are some practical tips:

Adjust Your Expectations

In modern societies, we often anticipate seamless transactions, efficient processes, and reliability. However, life is full of unexpected twists, mistakes, and inefficiencies. Recognize that discomfort is universal and not a personal failing. Notice when you’re personalizing events, as sometimes we take things too personally, assuming that others’ actions or circumstances are specifically directed at us. Remember that many experiences are shared by others, and it’s not always about you.

Practice Self-Compassion

Be kind to yourself. We often criticize ourselves for not handling setbacks better. Understand that everyone faces blips, frustrations, and disappointments. Avoid comparing your reactions to an idealized version of how others might handle similar situations. Recognize what pushes your buttons. Certain situations or topics may make you feel uncomfortable or out of your comfort zone. Acknowledge these triggers and approach them with self-compassion.

Embrace a Different Perspective

Change your mindset. Try to view challenging situations from a different angle. Consider the bigger picture and recognize that life’s incongruities are part of the human experience. Practice gratitude. Even during tough times, find something to be grateful for. Focusing on positive aspects can help shift your perspective.

Accept Unfairness

Life isn’t always fair, and that’s a reality we all face. Assess what you can control and what you cannot. Channel your energy toward making positive changes where possible. Put a stop to obsessive thinking. Dwelling on unfairness can lead to rumination and distress. Instead, focus on problem-solving and acceptance.

Finally, Pray for Guidance

God answers prayers. Sometime when life gets hard, prayer provides peace and clarity of mind. It also demonstrates humility and a willingness to accept the disappointments in life that incongruity brings. It helps one accept unfairness and gives resolve to face a new day, with a new perspective, and greater understanding.

By applying these strategies, you can build resilience and maintain your equilibrium even when faced with unexpected challenges (Psychology Today, 2024; Wikihow, 2024; Utah State University Extension, 2024; Psychology Today, 2024).

References

7 Ways to Cope When Life Gets Tough | Psychology Today

3 Ways to Deal with Life Being Unfair - wikiHow

Strategies for Dealing with Life’s Difficulties | USU

Overcoming Imposter Syndrome: 6 Evidence-Based Strategies | Psychology Today

Assisted by AI. 

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Canadian Child Abuse Study finds 1 of 20 children abused

Image of child playing alone on device created by Copilot

The Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect (CIS) is a significant survey that provides nationally aggregated information on investigated child maltreatment in Canada. The following are major findings from the most recent cycle of the study, the CIS-2019:

Investigations Conducted: An estimated 299,171 investigations were conducted in Canada in 2019, which translates to 48.22 investigations per 1000 children.

Substantiated Maltreatment: 34% of these investigations were for substantiated maltreatment. Among the substantiated cases:

• Exposure to Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) was the most frequently noted subtype.
• 4% involved physical harm to the child.
• 35% involved emotional harm.

Child Welfare Services:

• 20% of investigations were transferred to ongoing child welfare services.
• An out-of-home placement was made in 5% of investigations.

Comparison with Previous Cycles:

• The rate of investigations in Canada in 2019 was higher than those reported in previous CIS cycles and in Australian and American studies.

The data from the CIS-2019 fill a crucial gap in knowledge regarding child welfare services in Canada and will serve as a foundation for developing policies related to protecting children and promoting their well-being.

Sources: 

Fallon, B., Joh-Carnella, N., Trocmé, N. et al. Major Findings from the Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect 2019. Int. Journal on Child Malt. 5, 1–17 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42448-021-00110-9

Profile of Canadians who experienced victimization during childhood, 2018. (2022, December 12). https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2022001/article/00016-eng.htm

A review of recent analyses of the Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect (CIS) - HPCDP: Volume 35-8/9, October/November 2015. (2015, November 25). Canada.ca. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/reports-publications/health-promotion-chronic-disease-prevention-canada-research-policy-practice/vol-35-no-8-9-2015/review-recent-analyses-canadian-incidence-study-reported-child-abuse-neglect-cis.html

Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect. (2001, December 4). Canada.ca. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/reports-publications/canadian-incidence-study-reported-child-abuse-neglect.html

Earthquake measuremeent

How is the severity of an eathhquake measured?

The severity of an earthquake is measured using a logarithmic scale called the Richter scale. The scale ranges from 1 to 10, with each increase in number indicating a tenfold increase in ground motion ¹². The magnitude of an earthquake is usually expressed by the Richter Scale, which is a measure of the amplitude of the seismic waves ². The moment magnitude of an earthquake is another measure of the amount of energy released, which can be estimated from seismograph readings ²³.

In addition to the Richter scale, there are other scales that describe the severity of an earthquake’s effects on the Earth’s surface, humans, and buildings at different locations in the area of the epicenter. These are called seismic intensity scales. The Modified Mercalli Scale is one such scale that measures the amount of shaking at a particular location 4 5

Describe the 2023 Turkey earthquake in terms of earthquake measurement scales.

The February 6, 2023 Turkey earthquake was a powerful seismic event that occurred near the border of Turkey and Syria. It was part of a larger earthquake sequence that lasted for several hours and caused widespread damage and casualties in both countries. The earthquake was measured by different scales, depending on the source and method of measurement. Here are some of the most common scales used to measure earthquakes:

• Moment magnitude (Mw): This scale is based on the amount of energy released by the earthquake, measured in joules. It is calculated from the seismic moment, which is a measure of how much energy is transferred along a fault during an earthquake. The Mw scale ranges from 0 to 10, with higher values indicating stronger earthquakes. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) measured the February 6, 2023 Turkey earthquake at Mw 7.8¹.
• Surface wave magnitude (Ms): This scale is based on the amplitude of the surface waves generated by the earthquake, which are felt by people on the ground. It is calculated from the peak ground acceleration (PGA), which is a measure of how fast and how hard the ground shakes during an earthquake. The Ms scale ranges from 0 to 10, with higher values indicating stronger shaking. The USGS measured the February 6, 2023 Turkey earthquake at Ms 7.8².
• Body wave magnitude (Mb): This scale is based on the amplitude of the body waves generated by the earthquake, which are not felt by people on the ground but can be detected by instruments such as seismometers and GPS receivers. Body waves include P-waves (primary waves) and S-waves (secondary waves), which travel through solids, liquids, and gases respectively. The Mb scale ranges from 0 to 10, with higher values indicating stronger waves. The USGS measured the February 6, 2023 Turkey earthquake at Mb 7.8².
• Shindo magnitude (Sh): This scale is based on a combination of PGA and P-wave amplitude for surface waves only. It was developed by Japanese seismologists in response to criticism of other scales for being too sensitive to small variations in PGA or P-wave amplitude. The Sh scale ranges from -9 to +9, with higher values indicating stronger shaking. GEOSCOPE reported an estimated Sh value of Sh = +9 for the February 6, 2023 Turkey earthquake¹.

These scales are not directly comparable because they use different methods and data sources to measure earthquakes. However, they can provide useful information about how strong an earthquake was in terms of energy release or shaking intensity.

 

Sources:

1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/how-to/measuring-earthquake-severity-what-you-should-know-about-earthquake-magnitudes-damage-it-can-cause/articleshow/98877591.cms

2. USGS. (2016, November 30). Measuring Earthquakes.  https://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/earthq1/measure.html

3. Earthquake Hazards Program. (n.d.). Earthquake Magnitude, Energy Release, and Shaking Intensity. US Geological Survey.  https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/earthquake-magnitude-energy-release-and-shaking-intensity 

4. California Earthquake Authority. (2020, July 22). Earthquake Measurements: Magnitude vs Intensity. https://www.earthquakeauthority.com/Blog/2020/Earthquake-Measurements-Magnitude-vs-Intensity 

5. Wikipedia. (2023, October 18). Seismic intensity scales. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seismic_intensity_scales

 6. USGS. (2023, February 17). M7.8 and M7.5 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake Sequence near Nurdaği, Turkey. https://www.usgs.gov/news/featured-story/m78-and-m75-kahramanmaras-earthquake-sequence-near-nurdagi-turkey-turkiye 

 

Lahaina fire report

Warnings largely unheeded

While the total number of dead has not yet been determined,  the Lahaina fire in Maui on Tuesday, August 8, 2023 is on record as the worst wildfire in Hawaii history. 

The fire swept through the coastal town with such speed that it caught authorities by surprise, so that even emergency sirens were not activated. Numerous distressed residents, facing the rapid onset of the fire, found themselves unable to escape via the congested sole highway. As a result, some opted to use boats or even swim to safety, assuming they could manage to escape the danger at all.

 

Source: NBC News

In 2014, a nonprofit organization called the Hawaii Wildfire Management Organization collaborated with government entities to create a wildfire-protection strategy for the region surrounding Lahaina. The plan highlighted the vulnerability of Lahaina in Maui to fires due to its proximity to dry grasslands, steep landscape, and frequent winds.

The comprehensive plan, developed in partnership with both Maui and state authorities, outlined numerous actions required to safeguard the Lahaina area from wildfires. These actions encompassed activities like reducing vegetation near populated zones, enhancing the ability to respond to wildfires, and collaborating with landowners and utility companies to minimize fire risk on their properties.

Several suggestions from the 2014 plan, which resulted from a series of community meetings, were put into practice. These included efforts to thin out brush and educate landowners about fire prevention. However, certain recommendations, such as strengthening emergency-response capabilities, encountered obstacles due to limited funding, logistical challenges in rugged terrain, and conflicting priorities. Elizabeth Pickett, the main author of the report and co-executive director of the wildfire nonprofit, noted that while progress had been made, some aspects of the plan remained unfulfilled. 

Officials were surprised by the strength of Hurricane Dora, which traversed Hawaii in recent days, generating winds reaching up to 60 miles per hour. These winds propelled the fire towards Lahaina at a pace that outstripped the ability of both emergency personnel and residents to manage and control.

The potential threat of wildfires caused by hurricanes in Hawaii was detailed in a 2020 study conducted by scholars from the University of Hawaii and the East-West Center. This study linked a fire outbreak in 2018 on both Maui and Oahu to the windy conditions brought by Hurricane Lane.

In a similar manner to Hurricane Dora, Hurricane Lane moved past the islands in a southern trajectory. However, Hurricane Lane resulted in the ignition of four fires—three in West Maui and one on Oahu—scorching approximately 3,000 acres of land.

In the last ten years, an average of 20,000 acres have experienced wildfires each year in Hawaii, surpassing the rate of a hundred years ago by more than four times, as reported by the Pacific Fire Exchange, a nonprofit organization focused on fire safety.

A significant factor behind this trend has been the rapid growth of non-native grasses and shrubs, as highlighted by the aforementioned group.

Source: Frosch,, Dan & Jim Carlton. (2023, August 12). Hawaii Officials Were Warned Years Ago That Maui’s Lahaina Faced High Wildfire Risk. Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/hawaii-maui-fire-risks-plans-government-e883f3a3?mod=itp_wsj&mod=djemITP_h

Humanitarian Services of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints

 About Humanitarian Services

The Church's annual report for the year 2022 regarding its efforts to support those in need demonstrates that the faith's initiatives to assist those facing difficulties encompassed a sum exceeding $1 billion in expenses, over 6.3 million hours of volunteered time, and the execution of 3,692 humanitarian projects spanning 190 countries and territories.

The acts of compassion undertaken by The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints alleviate pain and suffering, nurture self-sufficiency, and create avenues for individuals to engage in service. The Church follows the admonition of Jesus Christ "to feed the hungry, give drink to the thirsty, take in the stranger, clothe the naked and visit the sick and afflicted."

This outreach towards humanitarian aid is made feasible through the kindhearted contributions and voluntary efforts of Latter-day Saints and individuals supportive of the faith. The Church extends its assistance without discrimination based on race, religious beliefs, or nationality. Support is administered in alignment with fundamental principles such as personal accountability, communal backing, self-reliance, and lasting sustainability.

 A workshop for young mothers led by the Hunger Project in Uganda.

Source: https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/church-of-jesus-christ-childhood-nutrition-2023?cid=email-CCD_EM_NEWS_081223_TestTwo_News1c 

 

Accountability in Humanitarian Action

How can we make sure that aid provided is appropriate and relevant?

By Emma Dearing

Theme: It is important that humanitarian response is appropriate and relevant to the needs of the people being served, and to ensure that this is the case, it is important that response is measured in a structured and systematic way.

Summary: To ensure that aid provided is the best possible, Sphere established core standards that organizations can utilize. These standards are important, and can ultimately help maintain appropriate and relevant aid, given that the very first standard is “Humanitarian response is appropriate and relevant.” There are nine total core standards, however I have decided to focus on the first one, because it is an important first step to take. There are three specific performance indicators listed to ensure that aid is appropriate and relevant, “communities and people affected by crisis consider that the response takes account of their specific needs, culture, and preferences. The assistance and protection provided correspond with assessed risks, vulnerabilities and needs. The response takes account of the capacities, skills and knowledge of people requiring assistance and protection." (The Sphere Project, 2011 p. 54); these are important, because appropriate and relevant aid can be the difference between life or death for some that are vulnerable and affected by crises. Additionally, appropriate, and relevant response ensures that it is non-discriminatory and impartial in nature.

To determine whether aid is truly appropriate and relevant, it is important that there are systems in place to measure it. In an article published in the Journal of International Humanitarian Action, authors analyzed a variety of humanitarian response and their measurements to determine if it was truly appropriate and relevant, and in turn, accountable. Their findings showed that there is a lack of appropriateness, relevance, and accountability in humanitarian response, and suggested that more structured systems are put in place to measure these things, to better the aid that is provided (Abdelmagid, et al., 2019).

Application: As responders, it’s important to provide the best care possible. Care needs to be relevant and appropriate, and tailored to one’s needs.

References:

The Sphere Project. (2011). Core Humanitarian Standard. The Sphere Project Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response. Pp. 50-84. Retrieved July 24, 2023 from: https://sheltercluster.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/public/docs/sphere-handbook-2018-en.pdf

Abdelmagid, N., Checchi, F., Garry, S., Warsame, A. (2019, August 28). Defining, measuring and interpreting the appropriateness of humanitarian assistance. International Journal Humanitarian Action, 4(14). https://doi.org/10.1186/s41018-019-0062-y

Photo ssir.org

Community Emergency Response Teams in Action

Forecasting disasters

 How AI is being used to predict disasters?

Theme: The occurrence of disasters could be lessened by anticipating them in advance. Researchers are utilizing artificial intelligence to predict natural disasters with high accuracy. By foreseeing these events, we have the potential to save countless lives and implement suitable measures to minimize property damage.

 Summary:

Artificial intelligence has proven beneficial in diverse fields, including customer service, trading, and healthcare. Remarkably, researchers have also discovered its potential to forecast natural disasters. Utilizing vast, high-quality datasets, AI can accurately predict the onset of various natural calamities, potentially saving thousands of lives. This capability could be a critical factor between life and death for those affected by such events.

Earthquakes

 Deep learning systems are being employed by researchers to analyze massive amounts of seismic data related to earthquakes. Artificial intelligence is proving to be highly effective in examining earthquake magnitude and patterns, and this data holds the potential for predicting future earthquake occurrences. A notable example involves Google and Harvard collaborating on an AI system specifically designed to forecast earthquake aftershocks. By leveraging a neural network built on over 131,000 earthquake and aftershock data points, the system outperformed traditional methods in predicting aftershock locations with greater precision.

Beyond this collaboration, multiple researchers are developing their own applications for earthquake and aftershock prediction. The envisioned future includes the ability to foresee earthquakes and execute evacuation operations based on such forecasts. Currently, Japan is utilizing satellite imagery analysis to predict natural disasters, with AI-based systems searching for changes in these images to identify risks like earthquakes and tsunamis. Additionally, these AI systems monitor the condition of aging infrastructure, detecting deformations in structures that can help mitigate damage from collapsing buildings, bridges, and subsiding roads. The combination of AI-powered earthquake prediction and infrastructure monitoring holds promise for reducing the impacts of seismic events and ensuring greater public safety.

Floods

Google is in the process of creating an AI platform to anticipate floods in India and issue warnings through Google Maps and Google Search. This AI system is trained using rainfall records and flood simulations as data sources. Similarly, researchers are also working on AI-driven systems that learn from rainfall and climate data, tested alongside flood simulations, yielding superior flood prediction compared to traditional methods. Additionally, AI can be harnessed for monitoring urban flooding. At the University of Dundee in the United Kingdom, researchers are collecting crowd-sourced data from platforms like Twitter and mobile apps to monitor urban flooding. The data includes images and location-specific information, which is then analyzed by AI algorithms. These systems have the potential to predict and monitor flood damage, complementing other existing approaches. Moreover, artificial intelligence and deep learning applications hold significant promise in the realm of disaster management.

Volcanic Eruptions

In the past, researchers faced challenges in accurately predicting natural disasters like volcanic eruptions. However, a breakthrough has emerged as scientists are now employing AI to identify minute ash particles originating from volcanoes. The shape of these ash particles enables the identification of the specific type of volcano. This advancement holds significant promise for enhancing eruption predictions and developing effective techniques to mitigate volcanic hazards.

IBM is also at the forefront of developing Watson, an AI system that utilizes seismic sensors and geological data to forecast volcanic eruptions. The objective is to predict both the locations and the intensity of eruptions with the assistance of Watson's capabilities. Such applications have the potential to save lives and prevent loss in areas surrounding active volcanoes by providing early warnings and enabling proactive measures.

Hurricanes

Each year, hurricanes result in significant property damage amounting to millions of dollars. Consequently, meteorological departments are actively seeking improved methods for predicting and tracking natural disasters like hurricanes and cyclones, including their trajectory and intensity. Enhanced prediction techniques hold the potential to not only save more lives but also reduce property damage.

In a collaboration between NASA and Development Seed, Hurricane Harvey was tracked using satellite imagery and machine learning. This innovative approach proved to be six times more effective than conventional methods, enabling hourly tracking of the hurricane instead of the usual six-hour intervals. As a result, these technological advancements are proving instrumental in monitoring hurricanes and accurately forecasting their paths, thus aiding in effective mitigation efforts.

 Limitations

 Despite the advanced capabilities of artificial intelligence, its limitations hinder its widespread use in real-world applications. One major drawback is that while AI can outperform humans in terms of volume and speed of operations, it falls short in the quality of predictions. There are instances where AI can make errors, particularly due to flawed data fed into the system, collected by humans. Consequently, the results produced by AI may lack accuracy. Moreover, a concerning trend in the adoption of AI is our tendency to become overly reliant on it. Even if AI makes a mistake, there is a risk that we might still blindly trust the system and take actions accordingly. This blind trust can have severe consequences, as demonstrated in scenarios like earthquake aftershock predictions, where inaccuracies could lead to significant loss of life.

Another issue with AI lies in its reliance on historical data from past records of natural disasters. This means that AI-powered applications struggle to adapt to changing trends and magnitudes in events like floods and earthquakes. Furthermore, the current AI systems are unable to incorporate the impact of climate change on natural disasters, as they are trained solely on historical data. Consequently, predicting long-term trends of various natural disasters influenced by climate change remains a significant challenge for artificial intelligence. To ensure reliable and real-life implementation, researchers must continue to conduct numerous tests to address these limitations in AI technology.

Applications:

The integration of cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence and machine learning holds great promise for predicting natural disasters. However, it is crucial to address the existing limitations of these technologies before implementing them in real-world applications. Therefore, researchers must focus on resolving the current issues with artificial intelligence.

To ensure successful deployment, government organizations require a well-defined roadmap that streamlines the adoption process. This roadmap should include the following steps:

1. Hiring experienced researchers and technology experts with expertise in AI.
2. Collecting high-quality data to train AI-powered applications effectively.
3. Enlisting skilled professionals to devise adoption strategies.
4. Updating the existing infrastructure within the government organization to accommodate AI implementation.
5. Providing education and training to government personnel on artificial intelligence.

By adopting AI for predicting natural disasters, millions of lives can be saved. Moreover, the datasets analyzed by AI-powered systems can enhance our understanding of the scale and patterns of various natural disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and tsunamis. This knowledge can contribute to improved infrastructure planning in disaster-prone regions. Hence, it is essential for government organizations to embrace AI for accurate prediction and monitoring of natural disasters, thereby ensuring the safety and well-being of their citizens.

Source: Naveen Joshi. (2019, March 15). How AI Can And Will Predict Disasters. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/03/15/how-ai-can-and-will-predict-disasters/?sh=35f14f1e5be2

AI and disaster response

 How can Artificial Intelligence reduce the impact of disasters?

Theme:  Artificial intelligence holds the promise of mitigating the impact of disasters by optimizing the allocation of relief resources with greater efficiency and effectiveness. It has the ability to expedite aid delivery and enhance the decision-making capabilities of relief workers in the field.

Summary

Disaster resilience efforts in the future might take on a different form compared to what we see today. For instance, when a cyclone or hurricane is approaching, advanced technologies like geo-spatial analysis, weather data, and historical disaster information could be harnessed to predict the number of people likely to be displaced and their probable destinations. This valuable insight could aid emergency responders in determining the required amount of aid, such as water, food, and medical care, and precisely where it should be dispatched.

Moreover, artificial intelligence algorithms could swiftly assess the extent of flooding, building damage, and road blockages by analyzing satellite imagery and weather predictions. As a result, rescue teams could efficiently distribute emergency assistance and identify individuals still at risk and cut off from escape routes, ensuring more effective and targeted aid delivery. 

McKinsey's Noble Intelligence represents one of many initiatives aiming to leverage the power of AI in assisting humanitarian endeavors. For instance, their team is working on an algorithm to significantly decrease the time required for assessing damage to structures like schools, reducing it from weeks to mere minutes. This algorithm utilizes a combination of satellite imagery, geo-spatial data, weather data, and other relevant information. The resulting insights can then be utilized to identify optimal locations for setting up temporary school tents and prioritize reconstruction efforts in the most effective manner.

 Another illustration of AI implementation involves various organizations utilizing AI techniques to analyze social media feeds in the aftermath of disasters. This form of analysis has the potential to offer crucial real-time information about the extent of infrastructure damage and the aid being provided to victims. By detecting images from shelters where people lack blankets or are waiting outdoors on the streets, this AI-driven approach can help identify urgent areas requiring immediate assistance.

Problems with Artificial Intelligence

The impact of these efforts is hindered by several challenges. Firstly, there is a limited scope, where many private-sector initiatives work with only a few government or NGO partners, focusing on specific use cases in isolation from the broader disaster-relief community. This lack of integration into established disaster relief protocols leads to fragmented efforts and may result in AI-derived insights and tools being provided to organizations unable to effectively maintain or incorporate them into their decision-making processes.

Secondly, despite the existence of abundant data, including satellite, geo-spatial, telecom, social media, and financial data, accessing this information when needed is not always possible. Additionally, datasets are seldom combined to unlock further insights, especially when combined with valuable data from experienced personnel on the ground. This on-the-ground perspective can be even more valuable than big data insights, but its systematic capture and analysis are often lacking.

Lastly, caution must be exercised in disaster situations where human lives are at stake due to AI's limitations. Claims about data analysis outcomes may not always be accurate, necessitating a rigorous review process to assess algorithm methods and assumptions. For instance, AI models designed to assess residential damage might be mistakenly used on commercial buildings, which rely on different materials, construction methods, and regulations. In an era where the ethics of AI are under scrutiny, there is a lack of agreed-upon standards for developers and users to follow.

Application

 First, there is a need to enhance collaboration among existing initiatives that currently focus on specific use cases with a few partners. This collaboration should evolve into a more impact-focused network of AI-driven disaster support. It is crucial to strike a balance between developing algorithms and ensuring widespread availability and usage of these tools in the front line of disaster relief. This can be achieved through capacity building efforts. Additionally, efforts within the data science community working on similar use cases should be streamlined to avoid duplication. Establishing domain-specific partnerships or coalitions, where industry and global agencies coordinate focused development teams, could be one effective model.

Second, in the short term, it is essential to develop more basic data capture and coordination tools across different agencies on the ground, rather than solely investing in highly advanced AI. These foundational tools can serve as valuable information "fuel" for future lifesaving algorithms. Therefore, dedicating an equal amount of development effort to both foundational tools and sophisticated algorithms would be beneficial.

Finally, there is an urgent need to establish domain-specific agreements on ethical AI principles. While global agencies like the United Nations and the European Union have initiated efforts to develop principles for the beneficial use of AI in general, it might take time due to the broad scope involved. In the meantime, it would be advantageous to narrow the focus to specific domains, such as disaster response, and align stakeholders accordingly. This could involve implementing an algorithm review process to ensure that AI solutions meet specified standards before their widespread release.

Source: Ashley van Heteren,, A., Hirt, M.,, & Van der Veken, L. (2020, January 14). Natural disasters are increasing in frequency and ferocity. Here's how AI can come to the rescue. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/natural-disasters-resilience-relief-artificial-intelligence-ai-mckinsey/

Weather events increasing, deaths decreasing

What is the relationship between climate change and disasters?

 By John Fisher

 I read about extreme disaster impacts from what are considered reliable sources. But two things I note. It is difficult to find the data that supports these claims. Many of these organizations' claims and much of the news coverage is a repeat of what the other organization write. They seem to be quoting each other without reliable supporting data.

Here is a sample of some of the claims. 

 The World Economic Forum

• Each year, over 160 million individuals face the risk of floods, hurricanes, fires, and various other natural calamities. Regrettably, this situation is expected to deteriorate further. Presently, natural disasters occur four times more frequently compared to 1970. Experts predict that these events may continue to increase in both occurrence and intensity due to the influence of climate change. 

The World Health Organization

• Various emergency situations arise from natural hazards (such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, landslides, wildfires, and droughts), technological hazards (such as chemical spills and infrastructure disruptions), complex situations arising from conflicts, and outbreaks of diseases. These emergencies have significant implications for public health and affect populations in all settings.
• Disasters caused by natural hazards, like earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, and floods, are witnessing a rise in intensity, frequency, and overall impact, partly attributed to climate change.
• Radiological and nuclear emergencies vary greatly in scale and nature, ranging from isolated cases of occupational or medical over-exposure to potential catastrophic events with global ramifications.

For example, the World Economic Forum, cited information from an article in the Economist, claiming that natural disasters are four times worse than in 1970. This is based on the following chart.

Another article by Bjorn Lomborg called "Thinking smartly about climate change" (Imprimis, April/May 2023) sheds insights about climate change and disasters and appears to debunk these claims. The annual number of hurricanes coming ashore in the U.S. since 1900 is declining, not increasing. In Australia, despite media reporting of wildfires being out of control, satellite images showed that in 2019 and 2020 the number of fires were at the lowest on record in Australia. Fire data shows a decrease in fires over the last 25 years. In the 1920s about 500,000 people died annually because of climate relate events. In the last decade the average has been 18,000. In 2020 the number dropped to around 11,000. A big reason for the drop in numbers is because of the human being's ability to adapt. "If a country wants to reduce the number of its citizens dying as a result of climate," Lomborg says, "it should pursue economic and technological development.

 I'm of the view that with new technology and better farming practices many of these problems can be solved. I listened to a webinar  from an agronomist in the high desert of Nevada, who is using no chemical fertilizers and no till farming procedures. The dung from cattle is used to grow new grasses. He says plant life changes weather patterns. While clouds and rain pass over deserts, land that has plants invites rain.

2017 figures for disaster impacts are reported on ReliefWeb.  Since 1988, the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) has been responsible for maintaining the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT). Originally established with the backing of the WHO and the Belgian government, EM-DAT has two primary aims. Firstly, it serves to inform humanitarian efforts on both national and international scales, facilitating more informed decision-making for disaster preparedness. Secondly, the database provides unbiased data to assess communities' susceptibility to disasters and assists policy-makers in establishing priorities. The CRED document is available at https://cred.be/sites/default/files/adsr_2017.pdf

Reference: Economist Data Team. (2017, August  29). Weather-related disasters are increasing
But the number of deaths caused by them is falling. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/08/29/weather-related-disasters-are-increasing

Balkans preparedness for disasters

 How are disasters handled in the Balkans?

By John Fisher

Theme: I used the heading, "How are disasters handled in the Balkans?," to do an internet search. This article was the seventh listing. It proposes CERT as a means of preparing people in the Balkans for disasters.

Summary: The global security landscape has become increasingly complex in recent decades due to factors such as modernization, rapid technological advancements, strategic shifts, and global political developments. The Balkans region is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters, which are exacerbated by fast urbanization and unregulated construction practices that disregard relevant codes and misuse land and natural resources. To address these threats effectively, a comprehensive strategy must be developed and implemented, involving not only institutions but also the active participation of the entire society.

Application: This paper proposes the implementation of the CERT concept in the Balkans to enhance citizens' knowledge and preparedness for disasters. Introducing the CERT program would require collaboration and support from local officials and public safety agencies. Trained instructors from the United States could be involved in teaching the program, while local community members, including students, seniors, and retired individuals, would be recruited for CERT training, which could be completed in 20 hours over a week. After the initial training, ongoing support and sponsorship from officials would be crucial, with graduates of the program being empowered to teach future classes.

Reference: Bela, M., Fisher, J.R., & Keqmezi Rexhepi, Z. (2019,, October). CITIZEN KNOWLEDGE AND READINESS FOR DISASTERS IN THE BALKANS. Knowledge International Journal 34(1):159-163. DOI: 10.35120/kij34010159b https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357398238_CITIZEN_KNOWLEDGE_AND_READINESS_FOR_DISASTERS_IN_THE_BALKANS

Map of the Balkans

Comments by Kierra Hardy 

The region's fast urbanization and unregulated construction practices have escalated the vulnerability of communities to natural hazards. Disregard for relevant building codes and mismanagement of land and natural resources exacerbate the potential for disaster occurrence and amplify its consequences. Addressing these issues requires a comprehensive strategy that goes beyond the involvement of institutions alone.

A holistic approach that incorporates the active participation of the entire society is critical for effective disaster preparedness and response. By engaging local communities, policymakers, non-governmental organizations, and relevant stakeholders, we can foster a culture of resilience and preparedness. Empowering individuals with knowledge and skills through educational programs, such as the Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) concept, can significantly enhance their ability to respond effectively during crises.

Moreover, collaborative efforts between governments, civil society, and international partners are vital for strengthening disaster management mechanisms. By sharing best practices, lessons learned, and resources, we can collectively work towards building resilient communities that can withstand and recover from natural disasters more efficiently.

It is essential to recognize that disasters do not discriminate based on socio-economic status, ethnicity, or nationality. The impact of these events affects all members of society. Therefore, an inclusive approach that considers the needs and perspectives of all individuals is crucial in crafting effective disaster management strategies.

By fostering a culture of preparedness, promoting sustainable development, and addressing underlying vulnerabilities, we can better equip communities in the Balkans region and beyond to navigate the challenges presented by the evolving global security landscape. Ultimately, the collective efforts of individuals, institutions, and society at large will determine our resilience and ability to adapt to the uncertainties of the future.

Recovery in developing countries

How are Recovery Processes Different in Developing/Developed Countries?

By Kierra Hardy

Summary:

Disaster recovery processes in developed countries, such as the United States, and developing countries differ significantly due to variations in resources, infrastructure, governance, and socio-economic conditions. While developed countries often have well-established and robust disaster management systems, developing countries face challenges in building and implementing effective recovery mechanisms. Here, we will compare the disaster recovery process in the United States to that of developing countries and identify areas for improvement in both contexts.

    Disaster Recovery in Developed Countries (United States): In the United States, disaster recovery processes benefit from well-funded government agencies, advanced technology, and established legal frameworks. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) plays a central role in coordinating disaster response and recovery efforts, and collaboration with state and local governments is essential for a coordinated response. Developed countries often have access to modern communication systems, early warning technologies, and well-equipped emergency response teams, enabling a rapid and efficient response to disasters. The well-developed infrastructure and financial resources available in developed countries facilitate timely recovery and reconstruction efforts.

    Disaster Recovery in Developing Countries: In contrast, developing countries face significant challenges in disaster recovery. Limited resources, weak governance, and inadequate infrastructure hinder their ability to respond effectively to disasters. Many developing countries lack adequate financial support, technical capacity, and trained personnel to manage disaster recovery efforts. Additionally, the high population density and poverty in many developing nations exacerbate the impact of disasters, leading to more extensive damage and higher loss of life. The lack of early warning systems and access to real-time information further complicates disaster response and recovery.

Areas for Improvement in Both Contexts:

    Capacity Building and Training: In both developed and developing countries, there is a need for continuous capacity building and training of emergency responders, local authorities, and communities. Regular training sessions and workshops can enhance preparedness, improve response coordination, and empower communities to take proactive measures during disasters. Governments and international organizations should invest in developing countries' capacity to manage disasters effectively.

    Community Participation and Empowerment: Community participation and empowerment are essential in both contexts. In developed countries, involving communities in disaster planning and decision-making can lead to more comprehensive and inclusive recovery strategies. In developing countries, empowering local communities with knowledge and resources can improve their resilience and ability to cope with disasters. Community-based disaster risk reduction initiatives can be particularly effective in vulnerable areas.

    Innovative Technology and Information Sharing: Both developed and developing countries can benefit from adopting innovative technologies for disaster management. Advanced early warning systems, remote sensing, and real-time data collection can significantly improve disaster response and recovery. Encouraging information sharing and cooperation between countries can enhance global disaster preparedness and response efforts.

    Strengthening International Cooperation: Developed countries can support disaster recovery in developing countries by providing financial assistance, technical expertise, and sharing best practices. International cooperation and partnerships are crucial in tackling cross-border disasters and addressing global challenges like climate change.

Sources:

    UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). (2019). Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019. Retrieved from: https://gar.undrr.org/sites/default/files/publicationpdf/gar2019.pdf

Links to an external site.

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (2007). Human Development Report 2007/2008: Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World. Retrieved from: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/268/hdr_20072008_en_complete.pdf
 

Poorer people have a harder time recovering from disasters - futurity.org

 

Defining the Role of Public Health in Disaster Recovery

Education following a disaster

 Why is returning to education important following a disaster?

 By Truman Sharp

Theme: Returning to education allows for children to somewhat return to normalcy which helps them recover from disasters. Efforts should be made to provide children with education following disasters.

Summary: Children are a particularly vulnerable following disasters. Sometimes they are left without parents and homes. Protecting them and getting them back in school is important for their survival after disasters. According to Briggs (2018) around 37 million children have disrupted education every year due to environmental threats. Schools can be destroyed from disasters due to poor site locations, school design, or construction.

Often children have difficulties once they return to school. They may be unable to learn due to having fear or trauma and studies have show that they show signs similar to PTSD which affects their academic performance (Briggs, 2018), To combat this some teachers are being trained to provide psychosocial support for children.

One of the main reasons why its important to help children return to education following disasters is it allows for an opportunity to return to normalcy. This can help bring hope and healing. In addition to helping children return to schools, humanitarian organizations are also providing vital services like vaccinations, medicines, child protection referrals, hygiene messaging, soap, clean water, and food (Briggs, 2018). This also helps parents to recover by building new shelters, recovering possessions, and finding employment (Briggs, 2018).

Save the Children provided three guiding principles in helping children return to education. They are protection, continuity and build back better. Protection includes helping children physically and psychologically in emergencies. Continuity ensures education begins quickly in a crisis to prevent decreases in education. Build back better includes changing the situation for the better.

Application: The benefits of beginning immediate education for children and other victims of a disaster are that it helps children have a somewhat return to normalcy and helps them recover. This return to normalcy gives hope and promotes healing. Additionally, immediate education helps to prevent backtracks in a child's education and helps them to keep learning without have to relearn things. Education and schooling affect protection and security for children in the wake of a disaster by providing them with a safe place they can go to learn and not be vulnerable to outside threats. It can also provide psychological protection as well. Education is important for victims of disasters because it provides them with a way to recover and cope with what has happened to them. It also gives them something their mind can focus on other than the disaster that just happened to them.

Reference:

Briggs, B. (2018, December 13). Safe Schools: getting children back into education after disaster strikes. Theirworld. Retrieved from https://theirworld.org/news/safe-schools-getting-children-back-into-education-after-natural-disaster/. 

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