Weather events increasing, deaths decreasing

What is the relationship between climate change and disasters?

 By John Fisher

 I read about extreme disaster impacts from what are considered reliable sources. But two things I note. It is difficult to find the data that supports these claims. Many of these organizations' claims and much of the news coverage is a repeat of what the other organization write. They seem to be quoting each other without reliable supporting data.

Here is a sample of some of the claims. 

 The World Economic Forum

• Each year, over 160 million individuals face the risk of floods, hurricanes, fires, and various other natural calamities. Regrettably, this situation is expected to deteriorate further. Presently, natural disasters occur four times more frequently compared to 1970. Experts predict that these events may continue to increase in both occurrence and intensity due to the influence of climate change. 

The World Health Organization

• Various emergency situations arise from natural hazards (such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, landslides, wildfires, and droughts), technological hazards (such as chemical spills and infrastructure disruptions), complex situations arising from conflicts, and outbreaks of diseases. These emergencies have significant implications for public health and affect populations in all settings.
• Disasters caused by natural hazards, like earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, and floods, are witnessing a rise in intensity, frequency, and overall impact, partly attributed to climate change.
• Radiological and nuclear emergencies vary greatly in scale and nature, ranging from isolated cases of occupational or medical over-exposure to potential catastrophic events with global ramifications.

For example, the World Economic Forum, cited information from an article in the Economist, claiming that natural disasters are four times worse than in 1970. This is based on the following chart.

Another article by Bjorn Lomborg called "Thinking smartly about climate change" (Imprimis, April/May 2023) sheds insights about climate change and disasters and appears to debunk these claims. The annual number of hurricanes coming ashore in the U.S. since 1900 is declining, not increasing. In Australia, despite media reporting of wildfires being out of control, satellite images showed that in 2019 and 2020 the number of fires were at the lowest on record in Australia. Fire data shows a decrease in fires over the last 25 years. In the 1920s about 500,000 people died annually because of climate relate events. In the last decade the average has been 18,000. In 2020 the number dropped to around 11,000. A big reason for the drop in numbers is because of the human being's ability to adapt. "If a country wants to reduce the number of its citizens dying as a result of climate," Lomborg says, "it should pursue economic and technological development.

 I'm of the view that with new technology and better farming practices many of these problems can be solved. I listened to a webinar  from an agronomist in the high desert of Nevada, who is using no chemical fertilizers and no till farming procedures. The dung from cattle is used to grow new grasses. He says plant life changes weather patterns. While clouds and rain pass over deserts, land that has plants invites rain.

2017 figures for disaster impacts are reported on ReliefWeb.  Since 1988, the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) has been responsible for maintaining the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT). Originally established with the backing of the WHO and the Belgian government, EM-DAT has two primary aims. Firstly, it serves to inform humanitarian efforts on both national and international scales, facilitating more informed decision-making for disaster preparedness. Secondly, the database provides unbiased data to assess communities' susceptibility to disasters and assists policy-makers in establishing priorities. The CRED document is available at https://cred.be/sites/default/files/adsr_2017.pdf

Reference: Economist Data Team. (2017, August  29). Weather-related disasters are increasing
But the number of deaths caused by them is falling. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/08/29/weather-related-disasters-are-increasing